Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.990934 12.861030 14.908984 17.312309 20.049226 23.062660 26.625181
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.232646 10.805930 13.907935 17.894649 22.851382 28.777991 36.363605
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.475695 9.392325 13.209720 18.503910 25.576561 34.610302 46.916872
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 5.023650 7.978999 12.143577 18.319415 27.097633 38.955249 55.971563
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.848297 6.657466 10.897303 17.581195 27.624995 41.879656 63.284753
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.024296 5.667203 9.917324 17.000404 28.187376 44.772579 70.682055
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.533775 5.102929 9.475011 17.126239 29.743608 49.161812 80.531584
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.085654 4.510202 8.870687 16.869480 30.613026 52.521659 89.039090
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.883340 4.327525 8.933408 17.720801 33.339613 58.963520 102.770094
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.648452 4.028549 8.729332 18.055134 35.193293 64.109915 114.775719
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.421072 3.694906 8.400951 18.103622 36.524269 68.460029 125.752844
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.235638 3.412027 8.123765 18.200640 37.927699 73.007545 137.336723
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.173368 3.411272 8.444737 19.546108 41.841240 82.328849 157.926391
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.071010 3.292472 8.498343 20.362655 44.842299 90.287740 176.756709
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.974940 3.168090 8.519682 21.112596 47.783709 98.358141 196.336270
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.834142 2.888032 8.134634 20.931476 48.833884 102.996270 210.023757
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.682028 2.533066 7.504619 20.111124 48.469572 104.907249 218.794435
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.563823 2.244218 6.983735 19.461092 48.378705 107.307247 228.596828
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.496530 2.097971 6.807312 19.604202 50.012523 113.210896 245.436470
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.423022 1.907792 6.475505 19.315622 50.646928 117.130835 258.643847
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.399644 1.890252 6.628054 20.274267 54.207870 127.281787 284.721068
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.360951 1.803366 6.561902 20.650571 56.437441 134.783387 305.882508
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.318236 1.686710 6.384495 20.705159 57.904628 140.761013 324.283519